NYT: William Safire Rips on Obama’s Convention Speech

Safire still comes out of retirement on occasion, when his blood hits a boil, to send his thoughts to the Op-Ed page.  I used to enjoy his writing when he was a regular contributor, but ever since the period shortly before his retirement, I feel he has lost his touch with the significance of events.

His criticism of Obama’s speech I feel largely suffers from the same poor focus.  As can be expected, Safire spends the brunt of the article focusing on diction and the allusions to political speeches past, and comes to the conclusion that the speech was bereft of substance.  And, as his choice of titles suggest (“The Audacity of Hype”?? That title must have been used a thousand times before by a thousand conversative blogs…), Safire feels that Obama’s convention speech was little more than an exercise in self-promotion (as opposed to policy-promotion).

And, as far as someone who did not watch the speech or any convention coverage can say, Safire is right.  But Safire actually looks at that as  some sort of disappointment.  I can understand if he feels it lacked oratory flourish (I have heard mostly overwhelmingly positive responses to Barack’s speech; certainly the crowds and accompanying energy could account for that), but to expect a bold policy outline or campaign focal point from Obama in the setting of the DNC party seems out-of-touch.  The greatest advantage Obama has over McCain is the one thing that CANNOT be missed even in mute when you watch Obama speak:  Enthusiasm.  People are not just going to vote for Barack Obama:  People are going to be naming their children Barack Obama. The last thing he needs to do is get specific and boring and make the DNC convention look like a John McCain rally.  Even if you don’t love Barack Obama, watching thousands in earnest adulation of him will shift your perspective a few degrees towards the left.

There are some other points that Safire made that warrant shorter comment, in no particular order:

• ““Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe.” Who’s telling him that? By escalating criticism, he knocked down a straw man, the oldest speechifying trick in the book.”  I do not see how Safire could have missed at least 8 years of fearmongering by the Republican party, at all levels, suggesting that Democrats would make America more vulnerable to terrorists.  That is not a straw man, and it is extantly audacious and out-of-touch to suggest it is.
• “I don’t fit the typical pedigree.” He doesn’t.  And it does make people uncomfortable.  I would prefer if Obama elected not to mention it but I hope Safire isn’t suggesting the claim is illegitimate.  Safire was 19 years old when 30 states in the Union still technically held anti-miscegenation laws.  When young people think racism is long dead, I am mildly disappointed.  When someone who lived much of his adult life through a time of state-enforced racism claims racism is an artifact of some bygone era, I am outraged.  Let’s hope that wasn’t the case.
• McCain’s definition of middle-class as being those who make under $5,000,000/year… I absolutely agree with Safire.  This was a joke that those who are rooting for a Democractic victory in 2008 (Obama included, of course) have decided to take seriously.  Serious criticism could be made as to why McCain did not give a straight answer, but to act like John McCain thinks a departmental Vice President at Goldman Sachs, pulling perhaps $3m/year is “middle-class” is childish and lowers the level of discourse.  You can see a campaign manager salivating at the opportunity though.
• “Two Americas”:  this is where I feel Safire is most out-of-touch.  What is described by some as “class warfare” is not always a good political strategy, but in the current (declining) economic climate?  I think if it is utilized properly, it could guarantee Barack Obama the presidency.
• “Hubris”?  I think it’s fine to be a bit cocky if you want to be President.  Giving a televised address to millions of people is just as cocky whether you’re posing in front of a fake Grecian temple or a fucking Burger King.

… and the cow goes moo

Boom Dizzle Declares for Obama!

This is mostly fun news.  Who doesn’t love B Diddy?

If Baron seriously did go out and try to get the vote out for Obama, it would be amazing.  BARON DAVIS showing up at your door with a bunch of Obama yard signs??

But otherwise, it’s not news.  I wonder how I’d feel about my vote if it could involve potentially a million dollars in increased taxes over the next few years as it might Baron?  A small blessing that I didn’t just sign a 5-year, $65m contract with the Clippers.

… and the cow goes moo

Merrill Lynch’s Recent Losses Exceed YEARS of Prior Gains

Found on Naked Capitalism, a short Financial Times article that should greatly interest those who plan to make long-term investments (or short-term gambles?), or those interested in how the recent (unabated) losses look on a chart of profits over the past few years/decades.

This is interesting to me for a couple of related reasons:  I have long believed, mildly, that the major dips in the market make relying on steady (‘regular’) gains in investment makes investing a prayer for calm waters.  Not to say positioning yourself to benefit from large vicissitudes in the market is not risky however it requires putting far less capital at play.  I’ve been putting this into practice somewhat, however I don’t have the fortitude or the liquid funds that I can apply to anything more than an occasional gamble.

The second, related reason is that I just finished reading The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Talib (not an affiliate link, so feel free to click even if you hate this blog) about 60 minutes ago.  I’ll try to assemble a cogent review after digesting some of the information further, however Merrill’s example certainly adds force to Talib’s philosophical views.

With the exposure to loss that is now quickly becoming apparent, and evident across the financial industry as a whole, I really wonder why we tend to believe that each financial catastrophe should be looked at like a product of innumerable, not-to-be-repeated errors, rather than innumerable unmeasured or unknown factors (or the one mistake of not acknowledging our limits in knowledge).

NOTE: I want to stress that I don’t believe The Black Swan is an investment guide in any useful way as I believe many do, but a very autobiographical philosophy book that discusses the role of statistics in our world and its lack of relevance to a large number of domains in which statistically modeled is relied upon.

… and the cow goes moo

Update re: Situation in Georgia, from a Georgian Perspective

From Blairwatch, via Polizeros (same blogger, different blogs).

The update, though coming from a “confidential correspondent inside Georgia” (which strikes me as very odd, all things considered… I am honestly not sure why confidentiality would matter in this situation, but all the information passes the smelltest with me), provides some insight into the current situation in Georgia as a result of the Russian invasion/counter-invasion.

A few points that were notable to me were:

The IDP / Internally Displaced Persons count (247,000 it seems if you count just those from Abkhazia and South Ossetia now in Georgia proper, ~120,000 if you count those in Georgia proper having shifted to other areas within Georgia to escape the conflict).

And that the level of poverty in Georgia is hard for Westerners like myself to fathom (“unemployment is running at 50%; the average monthly pension is 45 US.”)

And the comment that President Saakashvili was not a popular figure within Georgia until this war started (which would help provide some reason for the doomed invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia, and corresponds somewhat with what I have already heard about the feeling held by Georgians that they rightfully hold dominion over the region of South Ossetia).

Humanitarian aftershocks of this proportion (247,000 internally displaced, and approximately <2,000 killed in Georgia) should become expected with even relatively smaller conflicts like this one.  I wonder how much of this math was included in our Operation Iraqi Freedom metrics?  With this level of displacement (within a nation of 5,700,000), you have to assume that all surrounding nations immediately have a large vested interest in the conflict.  As my previous post indicated, there are 37,000 who have applied for temporary residence in Russia as a result of this conflict.  With the sudden influx of that volume of humanity, in a small bordering area, with all the demands that refugees will undoubtedly have, one cannot expect a nation to absorb them without getting directly involved in the conflict.

(Translation:  We really have to stop acting surprised when we find Iranians/Iranian arms inside Iraq.)

… and the cow goes moo

The 2nd Quarter 2008 GDP Numbers: At least two (and a half) blogs are calling ‘Bullshit!’

You’re reading the half-blog.

Mish and Naked Capitalism both have posts about the GDP numbers released for 2Q.  Largely overlapping, but Mish’s is significantly shorter (Naked Capitalism is a bit more for the hardcore, in my opinion).  Both are equally cynical about its accuracy or relevance.

Mish criticizes the value of the measurements, period.  Naked Capitalism has a very poignant post title, certainly, about the broader implications of what (if their criticism proves correct) is little more than domestic propaganda.

I actually felt fairly similarly towards the stimulus package(s).  It seems to me like a clear non-solution to an economic problem, but a great way of heading off a political problem.  If they can target the technical basis for a recession, and be able to argue there was no (technically) recession at the tail end of Bush’s administration, does that put more pressure on Obama’s administration to continue the fudge?

Broader issue: The importance of statistics, taking away from the importance of what is supposedly BEING measured, and the recognition by those whose performance is supposedly being measured.  Why teach a student, with all their individual tendencies and idiosyncrasies, when you can teach a test, standardized and the same every time it’s given?  Teaching students is HARD.  Why take the unpopular, painful, and near-impossible procedures to try to head off a recession (if you’re still making money), when you can have people stop describing it as a “recession”, and let the next sucker deal with the ethical issues?  Managing national economies is HARD.

… and the cow goes moo

Putin: “US Started It!”

A short article in the New York Times describes an accusation levied by the Russian sorta-PM/President that the US manufactured or somehow incited the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia.

I don’t post this because I think this is some groundbreaking admission that validates conspiracy-theorists everywhere, or because I think Putin is making a great point.  I do think this is a great EXAMPLE of an important international phenomenon though:  The total lack of trust in the US government by those outside of the US (and also, within, well-illustrated by the very substantial portion of the population that belives the US government was involved in 9/11) and the political advantages that come with presenting yourself as being in opposition to the US (I certainly believe Hugo Chavez and Vladimir Putin intentionally create that image for domestic consumption, though I’m sure they really don’t like us either.  They just hate us LOUDER than they would otherwise).

I do honestly wonder what involvement the US could have had (beyond their material/training support of the Georgian military in the time before the invasion, which could very well be incidental to the invasion).  I have trouble imagining that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili would act without consulting or tipping his hand in some way to the US, or without some sort of soft confirmation of support (his 5.7m person nation could certainly make quick work of the 70,000 person ‘nation’/'region’/'whatever’ of South Ossetia, but I find it impossible that he would think Russia would abstain from intervening… though perhaps in a manner more gentle than what turned out to be the case).

Of course, perhaps Saakashvili tipped his hand to whatever mid-level bureaucrats might be responsible for monitoring the Caucasus nations, and the news stopped there or was escalated to some upper-mid-level bureaucrat in the State Department, and it got lost on its way to Condi.  And Saakashvili took a silent reply as implicit wink-wink support (after all, he had 2,000 troops in Iraq.  We owe him).

What I am trying to say is that as logically possible it may be for the Bush administration to slightly shift the balance of the US election by starting a war and humanitarian crisis (37,000, as reported in Russia Today, applied to stay in Russia temporarily… of a ‘nation’ of 70,000… which is one more rarely-mentioned reason why Russia HAD to get involved), it seems much more likely that miscommunication and incompetence abounds, causing misunderstandings between world leaders.  Approaching the three-year anniversary of Hurrican Katrina, do we need a reminder of the government’s impotence? (*though I suppose that could also be an anit-black, anti-poor conspiracy put into play by Bush too……..)

Have you ever tried to execute a conspiracy? It’s damn near impossible…

… and the cow goes moo

NYT’s Nicholas Kristof Offers Some Introspection

I always enjoyed Kristof’s work when he writes about greater humanitarian issues and what might be described as ‘tragedies’.  Like everyone else on the New York Times’ editorial staff, I disagree with him on US Politics.

Today he has an interesting article offering a self-critique, to an extent, and a mea culpa, to a lesser extent, for his coverage of the Anthrax mailings.  I wish I saw articles like these more often.  It seems journalists are much better served by sweeping errors (or potential errors) under the rug and away from readers’ cluttered memories.  I woudl argue there is no longer any excuse not to have a bit of a meta-journalism component to the job, where you can explain your thought process to the readers who are hardcore enough to seek clarification, and where you can offer apologies even to those who you only ARGUABLY slandered or upon you inflicted harm in other ways.

… and the cow goes moo

Hunter Biden’s Work with Barack Obama

The Washington Post has an article, a bit more comprehensive in regards to Obama’s actions that may be related to Hunter’s lobbying than the NYT article I linked to previously (in this earlier post).  The Washington Post article further details the relationship between Obama, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and Hunter’s lobbying clients.

Not too much that wasn’t touched on in the previous post, but more information for those who have an interest (being that it’s the most viewed post on this site, A LOT of people appear to are curious).  It certainly looks like Hunter Biden’s interesting occupational choice is going to be relevant for at least a while longer.

Notable quote:

“Murphy [one of Hunter's clients] said he found Biden’s parentage a selling point.”

Would you pursue an occupation knowing that much of your value (maybe all of your value) lies in the surname you carry?  In surveys, does he put “Joseph Biden’s Son” under the ‘Occupation’ heading?

Does it bother anyone else how much money is spent by lobbyist’s clients to secure taxpayer money?  The very concept that a group of lobbyists should be given $320,000 so that taxpayers can grant their client $192,000 (so far) confounds my naive logic.

*Please note that I am not commenting at all on the worthiness of the projects lobbied for.

… and the cow goes moo

Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) Wins Primary

I am actually hoping for election fraud… (New York Times link)

Our standards for public service are so low.  Why doesn’t patriotism more frequently manifest itself in administrative zeal?  Patriotism only good for fighting?

… and the cow goes moo

Doggie Stories

I lost my dog of 18 years some time ago and I still hear his paws on the floor, on occasion.  I never intended to use my little blog for reasons such as these, especially when it comes to unverifiable stories (besides the video and photo evidence, of course), but this seems worth spreading to dog owners who might have a toy that fits the description (not just those made by Four Paws Products).  Even if it isn’t in keeping with this blog’s ethos.

Read “The Chai Story” here.  This story will likely only be of value to pet owners (especially dog owners), and perhaps the sadistically softhearted.

Add:  Link, oddly, was originally found at Naked Capitalism.  Judging by the frequent animal subjects of the ‘antidote du jour’, Yves Smith must be a pet owner.

… and the cow goes moo