Bob Herbert (NYT) has a new article on race! (and the election)
August 26, 2008
I love Bob Herbert when he writes about race or law, but have nothing complimentary to say about his politics editorials. I actually feel that way about the whole NYT Op-Ed page’s political reporting, really. Except there was a period where I strongly agreed with David Brooks, of all people. Not my proudest moment.
His new article addresses the hard-to-gauge resistance to an Obama presidency by, ahem, ’some Democrats’. Racial intolerance isn’t a trademark of the Republican party. Neither is fear of the new and different (to some Americans, black people are still considered ‘new’, I suspect)
I have been trying to comment on this issue since before the primaries. I really do believe the mildly-racist factor will play a large role. It’s easier for someone with… racial resistance? … to tell a pollster that she loves Obama than it is to actually vote for him in a private booth. I expect large discrepancies between pre-election and exit polling and actual results (I guess with the degree of election fraud scheduled to go on, that’s not a bold comment).
I had actually expected that this problem was going to arise with the slightly-sexist (”She’s a woman. How’s she going to stand up to other world leaders?” as if a female president is liable to get charmed by that swarthy bastard Vicente Fox into giving back New Mexico…) trying to rationalize a non-vote for President Hillary Clinton. But same thing, different folks.
*note to junior racism watchers: Obvious racism is almost extinct now. Executing racism requires tact and subtlety, and racism is just taboo enough for people to hide it. Sexism still has a way to go.
… and the cow goes moo
The race factor has already skewed polls, in the Democratic Primary. In several states, based on poll results, many analysts were expecting huge margins of victory for Obama.
However, the actual results came in MUCH different, with Obama barely eeking out a win or, in some cases, not winning the state.
Thanks for the update, Dan. Do you know if the how the discrepancy between the poll data and the voting results compared to previous, non-ethnic/gender-based elections?
I have been fairly negligent in monitoring the poll movement before the vote, and then the results. The campaign season makes me a bit too depressed for me to follow to that degree. That, and seeing John Edwards consistently net between 4%-30% of the vote in the caucuses and 14%-18% in the primaries (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1803).
… the metacow