Update re: Situation in Georgia, from a Georgian Perspective
August 30, 2008
From Blairwatch, via Polizeros (same blogger, different blogs).
The update, though coming from a “confidential correspondent inside Georgia” (which strikes me as very odd, all things considered… I am honestly not sure why confidentiality would matter in this situation, but all the information passes the smelltest with me), provides some insight into the current situation in Georgia as a result of the Russian invasion/counter-invasion.
A few points that were notable to me were:
The IDP / Internally Displaced Persons count (247,000 it seems if you count just those from Abkhazia and South Ossetia now in Georgia proper, ~120,000 if you count those in Georgia proper having shifted to other areas within Georgia to escape the conflict).
And that the level of poverty in Georgia is hard for Westerners like myself to fathom (“unemployment is running at 50%; the average monthly pension is 45 US.”)
And the comment that President Saakashvili was not a popular figure within Georgia until this war started (which would help provide some reason for the doomed invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia, and corresponds somewhat with what I have already heard about the feeling held by Georgians that they rightfully hold dominion over the region of South Ossetia).
Humanitarian aftershocks of this proportion (247,000 internally displaced, and approximately <2,000 killed in Georgia) should become expected with even relatively smaller conflicts like this one. I wonder how much of this math was included in our Operation Iraqi Freedom metrics? With this level of displacement (within a nation of 5,700,000), you have to assume that all surrounding nations immediately have a large vested interest in the conflict. As my previous post indicated, there are 37,000 who have applied for temporary residence in Russia as a result of this conflict. With the sudden influx of that volume of humanity, in a small bordering area, with all the demands that refugees will undoubtedly have, one cannot expect a nation to absorb them without getting directly involved in the conflict.
(Translation: We really have to stop acting surprised when we find Iranians/Iranian arms inside Iraq.)
… and the cow goes moo
Is what is written at this link relative too?? History is important!!
http://deigratia.wordpress.com/2008/08/31/russia-and-georgia-war/
Thanks for the link, deigratia. It definitely had some interesting information that I was unaware of (the potential/near treaty violations). However it was coached in some heavily conspiratorial language, which turns me off a bit. And whenever someone describes a government as “friendly and democratic”, my bullshit meters goes to eleven. Still, I recommend others to read it as well and form their own opinions.
I’ve heard varying reports and interpretations of the origins of the conflict as well, however have opted to choose the most recent major escalation as the starting point (Georgian ‘invasion’ into South Ossetia). I certainly understand if others disagree. My major complaint so far with it from a Canadian/American viewpoint is that CNN and the major news networks called it a Georgian invasion of South Ossetia until the Russians entered the mix, and suddenly it was phrased almost immediately and fairly consistently between media outlets as “Russian Aggression”. I have heard of military/terrorist actions taken (unofficially?) by South Ossetians against Georgians, and I have also heard of even earlier economic and resource deprivations committed officially by the Georgians against South Ossetia. In a conflict with a very long history of animosity, I tend to get lazy with the origins. I hope you understand my shortcut, even if you disagree.
Since the blog entry you link to is so comprehensive (translation: Long), I’m really not sure what you might wish for me to respond to so please tell me if I’m not addressing what you expected.
And I’m not sure if I’m interpreting your comment correctly, but are you taking issue with my description of the current Georgian/South Ossetian/(Russian) conflict as a “relatively smaller conflict”?
(Excuse the long reply… I just didn’t know what to reply to and there certainly was a ton of information in the link)
… the metacow
Simply this war has been going on since 1992, an ethnic cleansing. Then there was a killing of the Government, A state of emergency was called and at that very time an election was called to place the current ruler in. That to me rings Alarms. Because of the fighting with in and the breaking in many policies to maintain peace the overseer moved in (Russia). It was a bit prior to this these Us ppl gave them a trainindg to help the cleansing. So I have heard, I was questioning you as to what is truely happening, if I have something I can accept correction. I am glad you see things and write better than I.
Thanks
Sorry your comment stayed in limbo so long, deigratia. The spam blocker caught it among 50 or so online poker/car insurance spam comments these past few days and I didn’t notice it.
I agree pretty much completely with your last post (except for the kind words at the end). I’ve had long debates with otherwise like-minded, intelligent friends re: Kosovo due to a similar inability to choose a starting point in a long-running hot/cold conflict.
It seems like, collectively, we’ve elected to put fairly arbitrary thresholds at which we decide that there is a right and wrong side. I suspect that the “friendliness” or “Democraticness” or “business-friendly” properties of a state in one of these long-brewing conflicts becomes a major factor in our deciding to intervene, and labeling who is right and who is wrong.
I haven’t figured out a way on how to make the judgment for myself, empty of the Western-friendly labels. I certainly remain suspicious when, beyond the labels, the reasons for our support are kept so ambiguous.
Once again, thank you for the thoughtful comments and updates! Looking at my blog stats, it seems like South Ossetia is far less important than Biden and Palin-related US political controversy, so I’m glad to see that people are thinking about this conflict.
… the metacow
ADD:
And sorry, I didn’t directly address some points in your comment.
I wish I knew what was truly happening. I limited myself to the vagaries of the description and reporting on events in the US/Canada precisely due to my lack of certainty when it comes to the facts on the ground, or the history of the region.
I have my suspicions based on a lifetime of dealing with misinformation, but the only near-certainty I can come to is that each government is operating based on its own interests. That interest could be an energy resources grab, it could be internal political grandstanding, stemming a refugee crisis, or using the battlegrounds in small nations as a testing ground or posturing stage for much larger nations. The truth of most individual acts reported I tend to believe (such as the order of events), however the phrasing and portrayal of those events I remain highly skeptical of (hence my criticism of the term “Russian aggression”).
I really do wish I was more certain. If Canada gets invaded, I’ll have better information for you.
… the metacow